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The economy could still face turbulence as Fed works inflation down.Strong balance sheets enable the economy to weather strong Fed rate hikes.The biggest shock is the job market, and economic strength in the face of rate rises.September is a live meeting for monetary policy.Employment and economic momentum give the Fed room to hike further.The Fed will most likely require two more 25 bps rate hikes this year.Increasingly convinced that banking stress will not crash the economy.Cooler CPI data is welcome, but we'll have to see if it lasts.The banking system is strong and resilient.Inflation has previously exhibited false dawns.While the labour market has slowed, it remains quite strong.Monetary policy adjustments are traveling more quickly across the economy.The Fed will succeed in combating inflation.On late Thursday, Fed’s Waller said after the close of the US session: Also despite softer core CPI in June, most of the Fed/FOMC policymakers are arguing/indicating another two rate hikes in H2CY23 (July and November) against the market expectations of one more hike on 26th July and then a pause/pivot. But Dow Future was also undercut by the concern of China-like deflation amid the abrupt fall of core inflation in June and overall PPI data. Wall Street Futures surged Thursday further after softer-than-expected PPI data, hopes of Fed pause after the expected July hike and optimism about solid earnings growth for Q2CY23 and upbeat guidance for Q3FY23/H2CY23.
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